Analysis No. 525 of the Islamic State’s al-Naba weekly.
Threat Analysis and Intelligence Assessment
Daniele Garofalo Monitoring is registered with the Italian National ISSN Centre and the Centre for the Registration of Serial Publications (CIEPS) in Paris.ISSN (International Standard Serial Number): 3103-3520ORCID Code: 0009-0006-5289-2874The Islamic State publishes its al-Naba magazine every week, providing significant information on the group’s military, ideological, and propaganda activities in its provinces.
Objectives of the analysis: Analysing the weekly issue of the al-Naba newsletter, the Islamic State’s official media product, allows one to assess the jihadist organisation’s threat in operational terms.
Sources/Methodology: Direct analysis of propaganda and military information contained in the current issue (photos, statements, claims). The study utilises OSINT, SOCMINT and Digital HUMINT sources.
Limitations: Incomplete information (sometimes IS reports and claims in al-Naba tend to exaggerate numbers or often include attacks and photos that have not been officially claimed in the past), bias in sources, and the possibility of propaganda and disinformation. Over the years, it has been noted that the attack data provided by the Islamic State in its propaganda is real and verifiable in the field; usually, the exaggeration is in the number of damages/deaths caused (in the case of unverified attacks, the author will indicate this directly in the analysis, as was the case for some attacks carried out in Uganda in early 2025).
Structure of the analysis: This analysis is organised to provide a comprehensive and intelligence-driven assessment of the weekly magazine/newsletter. It begins with a concise overview of the publication, followed by a detailed examination of its visual and textual content, including selected photographs and their analytical relevance. The report then presents a structured summary and translation of reported military activities across the various Islamic State areas and provinces, enabling a geographic and operational comparison. Quantitative analysis follows, focusing on the number and distribution of attacks, supported by graphs and statistical data to identify trends and patterns. I’d like to point out that visual material related to operational areas is integrated where relevant. The analysis concludes with an overall assessment, including a threat evaluation and an intelligence judgment on operational capabilities, strategic intent, and potential future developments.
The weekly newsletter reached number 525 last Thursday.
Issue 525, eight pages long, covers the week of 13 to 19 Jumada al-Akhira 1447, from 4 to 10 December 2025.
Al-Naba generally includes most of the statements and photos published daily over the past week on its official channels, although often with new elements or additional details, both written and photographic. However, al-Naba won’t include unpublished statements or messages.
The main infographic summarises the areas affected by military operations during the week mentioned above: Nigeria, Syria, Mozambique, Somalia, Iraq and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
IS claims to have conducted 28 operations in all the mentioned areas and to have caused 53 deaths and injuries.
On the fourth page, the weekly magazine goes into detail about the types of attacks, operations and targets of Islamic State fighters, who follow two main strategies: “war of attrition” and “economic warfare”, as well as other strategies aimed at targeting Christians and Shiites. Since 20 March, the Islamic State has embarked on a new military campaign, particularly in Africa (in the areas of Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon and Mozambique) called “Burning Camps”.
Below is a detailed account of the attacks by province/area: