Executive Intelligence Briefing | Global Jihadist & Insurgent Threat Assessment
Rolling Forecast (30–90 Days): February –April 2026
Cover & Classification Note
Document Type: Executive Intelligence Briefing
Scope: Global Jihadist & Insurgent Threat Assessment
Time Horizon: Rolling Forecast (30–90 Days)
Reference Period: February - April 2026
This document is an independent analytical product intended for professional use by analysts, policy planners, security practitioners, and decision-makers. It is based exclusively on open-source intelligence, structured monitoring of primary jihadist material, and analytical methodologies consistent with applied intelligence standards.
This briefing does not represent the position of any government or international organisation.
Intended Audience & Use
This Executive Intelligence Briefing is intended for use by intelligence analysts, policy planners, military and security decision-makers, international organisations, and applied academic researchers concerned with jihadist and insurgent threat dynamics.
The document is designed to support strategic awareness, forward-looking risk assessment, and prioritisation of monitoring over a rolling 30–90-day horizon. It is not intended to provide tactical-level tasking, real-time operational guidance, or event-specific prediction. The briefing should be used as a decision-support and situational-awareness tool, informing planning, posture adjustment, and analytical focus rather than immediate response.
📌 Inside this Executive Intelligence Briefing
This briefing includes:
Regional Strategic Snapshots
Africa: ISWAP, IS-Sahel, IS-Somalia, ISM, ISCAP, JNIM, al-Shabaab, Boko Haram
Middle East & Asia: IS Syria/Iraq, AQAP, ISKP, ISPP, ISEAP, TTP, Ittehad-ul-Mujahidin Pakistan
Cognitive & Information Domain – Key Signals
Propaganda trends, narrative targeting, mobilisation signals, and cognitive warfare dynamics.Transnational Networks & Secondary Threat Environment
Monitoring the spread of external threats.
Forward Threat Forecast (30–90 Days) & Escalation Triggers Matrix
Baseline and alternative scenarios, early warning indicators, and escalation triggers.Implications & Monitoring Priorities
Decision-relevant implications for intelligence, policy, military planning, and security practitioners.Monitoring Checklist, Executive “So What?” & Strategic Risk Hierarchy
A structured checklist for the next 30–90 days and a final executive-level synthesis.