Strategic Threat Outlook | Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin — January 2026
Operational Trends, Regional Risk, and Forecast
Executive Intelligence Summary
Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin remains one of the most resilient and adaptive jihadist organisations in East Africa, with regional implications including destabilization of neighboring countries, increased cross-border violence, and potential spillover effects into regional security frameworks.
During January 2026, al-Shabaab activity reflects:
a persistent insurgent campaign across southern and central Somalia, particularly along the Lower Shabelle, Bay, Juba, and Middle Shabelle corridors, with continued targeting of Somali Army units, Danaab Special Forces, intelligence elements, and pro-government militias;
an expansion in cross-border operational tempo in Kenya, with increased incidents in Garissa, Mandera, Wajir, and Lamu counties, including targeted violence against security personnel and selected civilian figures, reinforcing a cost-imposition strategy against Nairobi; this underscores the need for continued alertness.
sustained media output through al-Kataib and affiliated channels, including structured claims, visual documentation, and coordinated messaging, underscoring organisational cohesion and an active command and control architecture.
The overall attack volume recorded in January, while lower than the December spike in Somalia, remains strategically significant and is offset by increased activity in Kenya. This pattern suggests tactical redistribution rather than degradation. The group continues to prioritise attritional warfare, interdiction of government mobility, degradation of intelligence and special forces capabilities, and selective psychological signalling operations.
No structural fragmentation or operational collapse is observable. Counterterrorism pressure, including airstrikes and intelligence-led operations, has imposed costs but has not disrupted al-Shabaab’s regenerative capacity, rural embedment, or cross-border facilitation networks. This highlights the importance of sustained, coordinated efforts to maintain regional stability.
Threat level: High
Trend: → Stable overall, with increased cross-border pressure toward Kenya
Primary risk areas: Southern and Central Somalia, cross-border counties in northeastern and coastal Kenya
Time horizon: 3–6 months
Confidence level: Medium–High
Scope and Methodology
This Strategic Threat Outlook is based on:
systematic monitoring of jihadist propaganda (videos, photos, statements, claims);
reporting from sources in the field;
Integration of OSINT, IMINT, SOCMINT, and Digital HUMINT.
Sources include primary material disseminated through al-Shabaab–affiliated channels, open-source reporting, official statements, and local sources.
Limitations
Incomplete or delayed reporting from contested or remote areas;
exaggeration or omission in group claims;
Propaganda bias and potential disinformation.
Where verification is not possible, this is explicitly noted in the assessment.
Overview and Security Threat Assessment
Despite ongoing counterterrorism efforts, al-Shabaab’s resilience underscores its ability to adapt, reinforcing the need for continued vigilance among security stakeholders.
Since mid-February 2025, al-Shabaab’s large-scale, coordinated offensives in central Somalia indicate a strategic shift from attritional violence to territorial contestation, requiring heightened vigilance among security stakeholders. The campaign targeted Middle Shabelle and Hiiran, focusing on Somali National Army positions, African Union forces, and clan militias, aiming to reverse 2022 territorial losses along strategic towns, supply routes, and population centers. A coordinated offensive in central Somalia marked a clear shift from attritional violence to territorial contestation. The campaign has primarily targeted the regions of Middle Shabelle and Hiiran, focusing on Somali National Army positions, African Union forces, and pro-government clan militias. The offensive represents a deliberate effort to reverse the territorial losses suffered during the 2022 Somali government–African Union campaign, particularly along strategic towns, supply corridors, and population hubs.