One-month monitoring of the Al-Shabaab offensive in the Middle Shabelle.

Details and photos

Although al-Shabaab's violence has slightly decreased in 2024, its pattern of activity has changed and the group’s security threats and attacks in the country are still very high. The al-Shabaab offensive has grown violently and steadily since mid-February 2025, with the Somali terrorist group launching a large military campaign in central Somalia, mainly in the Middle Shabelle and Hiiran regions. The offensive was launched against the Somali National Army (SNA), African Union Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) forces and allied clan militias. The group seeks to regain territory lost during the 2022 Somali government and African Union offensive, particularly strategic towns and supply routes.

The offensive began on 15 February 2025, with coordinated attacks on several Somali military positions, including ground assaults with car bombs. Al-Shabaab captured several towns and villages and destroyed numerous bases and camps. All attacks were documented with photos and videos. Both the US and Ethiopia conducted air strikes against al-Shabaab insurgents during the fighting, with the Somali government repeatedly requesting help from US AFRICOM.

For a comprehensive analysis on al-Shabaab’s military activity, you can follow the updates in the “Monitoring Military Activity” section by clicking the latest updated analysis “Security Risk Monitoring and Threat Assessment of al-Shabaab in Somalia. Military Operations February 2025” (Click and read here).

The following will show areas and photos of al-Shabaab attacks in the Middle Shabelle region from 15 February, the day the AS offensive began, until 16 March. The attacks occurred in the areas and districts of Balad, Ceel Baraf, Ruunnirgood, Adan Yabal, and Mahadaay.

Most of the photos published by al-Kataib Media show the dead bodies of soldiers and therefore will not be published.

I want to remind all readers to access the app or the site because the e-mail does not allow you to read the entire analysis, and not all photos are displayed.

The images also refer to several attacks in the same area on different days:

Balad

Cali Fooldheere

Cali Ahmed

Al-Kowsar

Mir Taqwa

Ceel al-Baraf

Dar al-Na'mah

Mehdai

Daarumicma

Biyo Cadde

Balcad

Giohar

Boos Hareeri

Bursha Sheikh

Sumadale

Conclusion

Despite the counter-terrorism and security operations conducted by the Somali army and pro-government militias against al-Shabaab over the past two years, the terrorist group continues to pose a threat to the Somali state.

The al-Shabaab insurgency has proved resilient and remains the main security challenge in war-torn Somalia. Al-Shabaab continues to control many areas of the country and continues to launch deadly attacks against international forces and civilians in the region. The timing of the new offensive could be linked to Ramadan and seasonal factors that influence the militants' operations. The targets are multiple, the types of attacks numerous, the casualties increasing and the attacks more sophisticated. The analysis here showed attacks in Middle Shabelle, but al-Shabaab operates consistently in eight other administrative regions of Somalia, as well as in Mogadishu and the border counties of Kenya.

Daniele Garofalo is a researcher and analyst on Jihadist Terrorism, Islamist Insurgents and Armed Groups. He is an expert in Monitoring Jihadist Media Channels and Islamist rebels and Armed Groups.

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