Security Risk Monitoring and Threat Assessment of al-Shabaab in Somalia

Military Operations June 2025

This report examines and analyses the military operations of Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin in Somalia.

Date: June 2025

Method: Monitoring of jihadist propaganda (videos, photos, statements, claims) and reports from sources in the field.

Organisations/groups:

• Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin

Affiliation/Alliance: Al-Qaeda

Impacted areas:

• Somalia, Kenya

Overview:

Despite anti-terrorism and security operations by the Somali army and pro-government militias against al-Shabaab over the past two years, the terrorist group continues to pose a threat to the Somali state. Although al-Shabaab's violence has slightly decreased in 2024, its pattern of activity has changed, and security threats and attacks in the country by the group are still very high. The al-Shabaab offensive has grown violently and steadily since mid-February 2025, with the Somali terrorist group launching a large military campaign in central Somalia, mainly in the regions of Middle Shabelle and Hiiran. The offensive was launched against the Somali National Army (SNA), the forces of the African Union’s Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), and allied clans’ militias.

The group aims to retake territory lost during the 2022 Somali government/African Union offensive, particularly strategic cities and key supply routes. Although al-Shabaab's violence has slightly decreased in 2024, its pattern of activity has changed, and the group’s security threats and attacks in the country are still very high. The al-Shabaab offensive has grown violently and steadily since mid-February 2025, with the Somali terrorist group launching a large military campaign in central Somalia, mainly in the Middle Shabelle and Hiiran regions. The offensive was launched against the Somali National Army (SNA), African Union Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) forces and allied clan militias. The group seeks to regain territory lost during the 2022 Somali government and African Union offensive, particularly strategic towns and supply routes.

The offensive began on 15 February 2025, with coordinated attacks on several Somali military positions, including ground assaults with car bombs. Al-Shabaab captured several towns and villages and destroyed numerous bases and camps. All attacks were documented with photos and videos.