Security Risk Monitoring and Threat Assessment of Islamic State in Africa

Military Operations July 2025

In recent years, African areas have become increasingly important for the expansion of the Islamic State, even more so than the Middle East.

Africa must therefore be constantly monitored to be able to correctly assess threats and risk expansion.

In Africa, in addition to the strong activity of al-Qaeda affiliates, there are five official Islamic State provinces. This report examines and analyses the military operations of all 5 provinces.

Date: July 2025

Method: Monitoring of jihadist propaganda (videos, photos, statements, claims) and reports from sources in the field.

Organisations/groups:

• Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP);

• Islamic State Sahel Province (IS-Sahel);

• Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP);

• Islamic State Somalia Province (IS-Somalia);

• Islamic State Mozambique Province (IS-Moz).

Allied/Affiliated: Islamic State

Activity area in Africa in July 2025:

• Niger, Nigeria, Cameroon, DR Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burkina Faso and Mozambique.

Overview and Security Threat Assessments:

Data confirm a stable presence of the Islamic State in Africa in many areas, despite ongoing counter-terrorism operations. Added to this is the ability and confirmation to conduct attacks in different ways, hitting various targets and managing to create chaos and trouble in every way. Islamic State attacks against Christian villages and civilians are occurring exclusively in Africa, and with exponential growth in several areas, with a particularly worrying development in the Democratic Republic of Congo (although they have also occurred in Nigeria and Mozambique).

Creating problems for central governments and instability in areas where IS operates serves to exploit widespread discontent to gain support and recruitment and to expand areas of activity. IS operates actively and continuously without problems in 8 different countries, in which it controls many areas.

All attacks were followed by extensive propaganda; in particular, IS published numerous photos, videos, and statements through its central media and via Amaq News Agency and the weekly al-Naba Newspaper this month.