Security Risk Monitoring and Threat Assessment of Islamic State in Africa

Military Operations July 2025

In recent years, African areas have become increasingly important for the expansion of the Islamic State, even more so than the Middle East.

Africa must therefore be constantly monitored to be able to correctly assess threats and risk expansion.

In Africa, in addition to the strong activity of al-Qaeda affiliates, there are five official Islamic State provinces. This report examines and analyses the military operations of all 5 provinces.

Date: July 2025

Method: Monitoring of jihadist propaganda (videos, photos, statements, claims) and reports from sources in the field.

Organisations/groups:

• Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP);

• Islamic State Sahel Province (IS-Sahel);

• Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP);

• Islamic State Somalia Province (IS-Somalia);

• Islamic State Mozambique Province (IS-Moz).

Allied/Affiliated: Islamic State

Activity area in Africa in July 2025:

• Niger, Nigeria, Cameroon, DR Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burkina Faso and Mozambique.

Overview and Security Threat Assessments:

Data confirm a stable presence of the Islamic State in Africa in many areas, despite ongoing counter-terrorism operations. Added to this is the ability and confirmation to conduct attacks in different ways, hitting various targets and managing to create chaos and trouble in every way. Islamic State attacks against Christian villages and civilians are occurring exclusively in Africa, and with exponential growth in several areas, with a particularly worrying development in the Democratic Republic of Congo (although they have also occurred in Nigeria and Mozambique).

Creating problems for central governments and instability in areas where IS operates serves to exploit widespread discontent to gain support and recruitment and to expand areas of activity. IS operates actively and continuously without problems in 8 different countries, in which it controls many areas.

All attacks were followed by extensive propaganda; in particular, IS published numerous photos, videos, and statements through its central media and via Amaq News Agency and the weekly al-Naba Newspaper this month.

Number of attacks in July 2025: 60

Number of Attacks by Country July 2025:

1. MOZAMBIQUE: 13

2. DR CONGO: 14

3. NIGERIA: 17

4. NIGER: 4

5. CAMEROON: 2

6. SOMALIA: 6

7. MALI: 1

8. BURKINA FASO: 3

Targets:

IS’s military objectives this month have been many, and they are as follows:

• Nigerian Army, Nigerian Pro-Government Militias, Congolese Army, Mozambican Army, Mozambican Pro-Government Militias, Mozambican Police, Niger Army, Nigerien pro-government militias, Cameroonian Army, Puntland Security Forces, Malian Army, Christian Civilians, Tribal Leaders, JNIM al-Qaeda militia and Russian PMC Africa Corps.

  

• Area:

The Islamic State hit the following countries this month:

1. MOZAMBIQUE:

   • District of: Macomia, Ancuabe, Chiùre, Muidumbe; Cabo Delgado Province;

2. DR CONGO: Ituri province;

3. NIGERIA: States of Borno;

4. NIGER: Tillaberi Region;

5. CAMEROON: Far North Region.

6. SOMALIA: Bari region, Puntland.

7. MALI: Gao Region;

8. BURKINA FASO: Soum Province, Sahel Region; Séno province, Liptako Region.

Conclusion: Security Threat Assessments

An assessment of Islamic State military activity in Africa this month shows a decline of about 30% in the number of attacks, but shows an increase in the areas affected, particularly with attacks this month in two regions of Burkina Faso and attacks in a new district of Mozambique (Chiùre). The coming months of 2025 will be more indicative of the trend in attacks.

The areas most affected in Africa this month are Nigeria, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo, with a sharp decline in activity in Somalia. The most active province is undoubtedly ISWAP, which operates in three different countries, although it is in sharp decline compared to previous months.

There has been a further increase in attacks on bases (using the “Burning camps” strategy), the use of drones and night-time operations (especially by ISWAP). Attacks on Christian civilians are on the rise and attacks on JNIM’s jihadist rival are returning.

A decline in military activity does not mean a crisis or difficulty for the provinces, as IS has shown that after some declines it has managed to grow exponentially, partly because attacks have decreased in quantity but increased in quality, damage and casualties.

Daniele Garofalo is a researcher and analyst on Jihadist terrorism and an expert in monitoring Jihadist media channels.

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