Security Risk Monitoring and Threat Assessment of al-Shabaab in Somalia

Military Operations September 2025

Objectives of the analysis: This report examines and analyses the military operations of Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin in Somalia.

Date: September 2025

Methodology: monitoring of jihadist propaganda (videos, photos, statements, claims) and reports from sources in the field.

Sources: open sources, primary sources available on Islamic State channels and websites, official reports, local sources in the field.

Verification: cross-checking, date cross-checking, use of local and international sources.

Limitations: incomplete information (sometimes reports and claims by groups exaggerate numbers or do not claim activities that have actually been carried out), bias in sources, possibility of propaganda and disinformation.

Structure of the analysis: updates on recent military activity, analysis of the number of attacks, graphs and statistics, photos, areas, conclusions and assessments.

Organisations/groups:

• Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin

Affiliation/Alliance: Al-Qaeda

Impacted areas:

• Somalia, Kenya

Overview:

Despite anti-terrorism and security operations by the Somali army and pro-government militias against al-Shabaab over the past two years, the terrorist group continues to pose a threat to the Somali state. Although al-Shabaab’s violence has slightly decreased in 2024, its pattern of activity has changed, and security threats and attacks in the country by the group are still very high. The al-Shabaab offensive has grown violently and steadily since mid-February 2025, with the Somali terrorist group launching a large military campaign in central Somalia, mainly in the regions of Middle Shabelle and Hiiran. The offensive was launched against the Somali National Army (SNA), the forces of the African Union’s Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), and allied clans’ militias.

The group aims to retake territory lost during the 2022 Somali government/African Union offensive, particularly strategic cities and key supply routes. Although al-Shabaab’s violence has slightly decreased in 2024, its pattern of activity has changed, and the group’s security threats and attacks in the country are still very high. The al-Shabaab offensive has grown violently and steadily since mid-February 2025, with the Somali terrorist group launching a large military campaign in central Somalia, mainly in the Middle Shabelle and Hiiran regions. The offensive was launched against the Somali National Army (SNA), African Union Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) forces and allied clan militias. The group seeks to regain territory lost during the 2022 Somali government and African Union offensive, particularly strategic towns and supply routes.