Security Risk Monitoring and Threat Assessment from Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
Military Operations May 2024
This report examines and analyses the military operations of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). It is possible to understand the current and future security risks through the attacks conducted, the targets, areas of operation, targets and the type of attacks conducted.
Date: May 2024
Method: Monitoring of group propaganda (videos, photos, statements, claims) and reports from field sources.
Areas/Country: Pakistan
Using the TTP publication and with the help of graphs, we can see that the group conducted 98 attacks in May. The targets remain almost always the same: the Pakistani army, Pakistani police, counter-terrorist operatives and border guards.
Below the graphs to see the areas of military activity in May:
Out of 98 claimed attacks, 92 have been carried out in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, while three in Balochistan province (Quetta and Zhob districts), and three in Punjab province (Rawalpindi, Lahore, and Dera Ghazi Khan, in the south).
The larger Waziristan region witnessed most attacks, with the North Waziristan tribal district registering 21 attacks and the South Waziristan tribal district 16. In line with the ongoing pattern of insurgency, the Khyber tribal district also witnesses a high number of attacks, 13 in total. However, two regions in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have been marked by an unusual spate of attacks. Tank district and Bajaur tribal district registered 11 and 10 attacks, respectively, mostly targeting security forces but also local tribal militias. This highlights the TTP new offensive in these two territories; particularly, Bajaur witnessed a considerable increase in attacks which started the previous month.
Compared to previous months, the TTP continues to be militarily very active, maintaining a very high number of military operations, as can be seen from the following graph:
Conclusion:
The TTP’s ongoing insurgency remains set on the trajectory the group inaugurated in full force in August 2021. After the brief hiatus of 2022 during the attempted peace talks between Islamabad and the TTP, the latter has been steadily increasing not only the number of claimed attacks in the country, but also expanding its areas of operations from traditionally Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and increasingly into Balochistan and, recently, Punjab, marking a turn in the group’s challenge to the authorities.
In the next months, the TTP attack will gain more strength and increase over time, possibly involving new areas of attacks and reinforcing current ones.
Daniele Garofalo is a researcher and analyst on Jihadist Terrorism, Islamist Insurgents and Armed Groups. He is an expert in Monitoring Jihadist Media Channels and Islamist rebels and Armed Groups.
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