Security Risk Monitoring and Threat Assessment: Islamic State in Africa

Military Operations September 2025

Objectives of the analysis: In recent years, African areas have become increasingly important for the expansion of the Islamic State, even more so than the Middle East.

Africa must therefore be constantly monitored to be able to assess threats and risk expansion correctly.

In Africa, in addition to the strong activity of al-Qaeda affiliates, there are five official Islamic State provinces. This report examines and analyses the military operations of all 5 provinces.

Date: September 2025

Methodology: monitoring of jihadist propaganda (videos, photos, statements, claims) and reports from sources in the field.

Sources: open sources, primary sources available on Islamic State channels and websites, official reports, local sources in the field.

Verification: cross-checking, date cross-checking, use of local and international sources.

Limitations: incomplete information (sometimes reports and claims by groups exaggerate numbers or do not claim activities that have actually been carried out), bias in sources, possibility of propaganda and disinformation.

Structure of the analysis: updates on recent military activity, analysis of the number of attacks, graphs and statistics, photos, areas, conclusions and assessments.

Organisations/groups:

• Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP);

• Islamic State Sahel Province (IS-Sahel);

• Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP);

• Islamic State Somalia Province (IS-Somalia);

• Islamic State Mozambique Province (ISM).

Allied/Affiliated: Islamic State

Activity area in Africa in September 2025:

• Niger, Nigeria, DR Congo, Somalia, Burkina Faso, Cameroon and Mozambique.