Security Risk Monitoring and Threat Assessment from Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
Military Operations January 2025
This report examines and analyses the military operations of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). It is possible to understand the current and future security risks through the attacks conducted, the targets, areas of operation, targets and the type of attacks conducted.
Date: January 2025
Method: Monitoring of group propaganda (videos, photos, statements, claims) and reports from field sources.
Areas/Country: Pakistan
Using the TTP publication and with the help of graphs, we can see that the group conducted 110 attacks in January. The targets remain almost always the same: the Pakistani army, Pakistani police, counter-terrorist operatives and border guards. The TTP claims to have killed and injured 155 people.
Over the months, a significant increase in attacks and human and material damage is evident, although with a decrease when compared to the last six months of 2024. In any case, the TTP continues to be militarily very active, maintaining a very high number of military operations, as can be seen in the graph below:
Conclusions:
The TTP's ongoing insurgency remains set on the trajectory that the group inaugurated at full strength in August 2021. After the brief hiatus in 2022, during the attempted peace talks between Islamabad and the TTP, the latter has steadily increased not only the number of attacks claimed in the country, but also expanded its areas of operations from the traditional province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and increasingly into Balochistan and Punjab, marking a turning point in the group's challenge to the authorities. In the last six months of 2024, the group has consistently exceeded 100 operations, but it is especially in August, September, October, and November that it has even far exceeded 200, achieving a high number of military operations and killing and damage.
Although 2025 began with a decisive drop in activities (as also early last year), it will only be by monitoring the coming months that the true military trajectory of the TTP will be understood.
Daniele Garofalo is a researcher and analyst on Jihadist Terrorism, Islamist Insurgents and Armed Groups. He is an expert in Monitoring Jihadist Media Channels and Islamist rebels and Armed Groups.
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