Security Risk Monitoring and Threat Assessment: al-Shabaab in Somalia
Military Operations November 2025
Daniele Garofalo Monitoring is registered with the Italian National ISSN Centre and the Centre for the Registration of Serial Publications (CIEPS) in Paris.ISSN (International Standard Serial Number): 3103-3520ORCID Code: 0009-0006-5289-2874Objectives of the analysis: This report examines and analyses the military operations of Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin in Somalia.
Date: November 2025
Methodology: monitoring of jihadist propaganda (videos, photos, statements, claims) and reports from sources in the field.
Sources: open sources, primary sources available on Islamic State channels and websites, official reports, and local sources in the field.
Verification: cross-checking, date cross-checking, and use of local and international sources.
Limitations: incomplete information (sometimes reports and claims by groups exaggerate numbers or fail to acknowledge activities that have actually been carried out), bias in sources, and the possibility of propaganda and disinformation.
Structure of the analysis: updates on recent military activity, analysis of the number of attacks, graphs and statistics, photos, areas, conclusions and assessments.
Organisations/groups:
Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin
Affiliation/Alliance: Al-Qaeda
Impacted areas:
Somalia, Kenya
Overview:
Despite anti-terrorism and security operations by the Somali army and pro-government militias against al-Shabaab over the past two years, the terrorist group continues to pose a threat to the Somali state. Although al-Shabaab’s violence has slightly decreased in 2024, its pattern of activity has changed, and security threats and attacks in the country by the group are still very high. The al-Shabaab offensive has grown violently and steadily since mid-February 2025, with the Somali terrorist group launching a large military campaign in central Somalia, mainly in the regions of Middle Shabelle and Hiiran. The offensive was launched against the Somali National Army (SNA), the forces of the African Union’s Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), and allied clans’ militias.
The group aims to retake territory lost during the 2022 Somali government/African Union offensive, particularly strategic cities and key supply routes. Although al-Shabaab’s violence has slightly decreased in 2024, its pattern of activity has changed, and the group’s security threats and attacks in the country are still very high. The al-Shabaab offensive has grown violently and steadily since mid-February 2025, with the Somali terrorist group launching a large military campaign in central Somalia, mainly in the Middle Shabelle and Hiiran regions. The offensive was launched against the Somali National Army (SNA), African Union Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) forces and allied clan militias. The group seeks to regain territory lost during the 2022 Somali government and African Union offensive, particularly strategic towns and supply routes.
The offensive began on 15 February 2025, with coordinated attacks on several Somali military positions, including ground assaults with car bombs. Al-Shabaab captured several towns and villages and destroyed numerous bases and camps. All attacks were documented with photos and videos.
Al-Shabaab is using the following tactics to control occupied areas:
• Political infiltration: through religious leaders, Sharia courts, sermons.
• Targeted assassinations: elders, mayors and local officials are regularly targeted.
• Tax collection: even in areas officially controlled by the government, al-Shabaab sometimes collects “zakat”.
• Media: they showcase the return of Sharia law, accusing the government of being corrupt and serving the West.
Both the US and Ethiopia conducted air strikes against al-Shabaab insurgents during the fighting, with the Somali government repeatedly requesting help from US AFRICOM. After hitting the Middle Shabelle and Hiran area (which it largely controls) hard, al-Shabaab is now focusing on the Lower Shabelle and Bay regions, steadily increasing the pressure.