Strategic Threat Outlook | Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin — February 2026
Operational Trends, Regional Risk, and Forecast
Executive Intelligence Summary
Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin remains one of the most resilient and adaptive jihadist organisations in East Africa, with regional implications including destabilization of neighboring countries such as Kenya and Ethiopia, increased cross-border violence, and potential spillover effects into regional security frameworks.
The group continues to prioritise attritional warfare, interdiction of government mobility, degradation of intelligence and special forces capabilities, and selective psychological signalling operations.
No structural fragmentation or operational collapse is observable. Counterterrorism pressure, including airstrikes and intelligence-led operations, has imposed costs but has not disrupted al-Shabaab’s regenerative capacity, rural embedment, or cross-border facilitation networks. This highlights the importance of sustained, coordinated efforts to maintain regional stability.
Threat level: High
Trend: → Stable overall, with increased cross-border pressure toward Kenya
Primary risk areas: Southern and Central Somalia, cross-border counties in northeastern and coastal Kenya
Time horizon: 3–6 months
Confidence level: Medium–High
Scope and Methodology
This Strategic Threat Outlook is based on:
systematic monitoring of jihadist propaganda (videos, photos, statements, claims);
reporting from sources in the field;
Integration of OSINT, IMINT, SOCMINT, and Digital HUMINT, including analysis of propaganda, disinformation, and group claims, is essential to understanding al-Shabaab’s influence operations and countering their narrative effectively.
Sources include primary material disseminated through al-Shabaab–affiliated channels, open-source reporting, official statements, and local sources.
Limitations
Incomplete or delayed reporting from contested or remote areas;
exaggeration or omission in group claims;
Propaganda bias and potential disinformation.
Where verification is not possible, this is explicitly noted in the assessment.
Overview and Security Threat Assessment
Despite ongoing counterterrorism efforts, al-Shabaab’s resilience should reassure security stakeholders of its ability to adapt and persist, underscoring the need for continued vigilance.
Since mid-February 2025, al-Shabaab’s large-scale, coordinated offensives in central Somalia indicate a strategic shift from attritional violence to territorial contestation, requiring heightened vigilance among security stakeholders. The campaign targeted Middle Shabelle and Hiiran, focusing on Somali National Army positions, African Union forces, and clan militias, aiming to reverse 2022 territorial losses along strategic towns, supply routes, and population centers. A coordinated offensive in central Somalia marked a clear shift from attritional violence to territorial contestation. The campaign has primarily targeted the regions of Middle Shabelle and Hiiran, focusing on Somali National Army positions, African Union forces, and pro-government clan militias. The offensive represents a deliberate effort to reverse the territorial losses suffered during the 2022 Somali government–African Union campaign, particularly along strategic towns, supply corridors, and population hubs.