The New Geography of ISCAP
Why the Islamic State Is Expanding Beyond Its Traditional Strongholds in Eastern DR Congo
The Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP) is entering a new stage of its insurgency in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The principal development is not a sharp increase in attacks, but a gradual transformation of the group’s operational geography. While North Kivu and Ituri remain its historical centres of gravity, recent activity indicates that ISCAP is progressively expanding into additional operating environments, particularly Haute Uele Province.
This evolution suggests more than tactical adaptation. It indicates an organisation that has preserved operational resilience under sustained military pressure while enlarging the geographic ecosystem within which it can operate. Rather than seeking territorial control through conventional insurgent methods, ISCAP continues to rely on dispersed assault units, forest mobility, selective violence against civilians and security forces, and the systematic exploitation of weak governance across eastern Congo.
The strategic significance of this trend lies in its cumulative effect. Every new area of activity increases the organisation’s operational depth, complicates military planning, stretches already limited security resources and enlarges the space in which future insurgent activity can develop. The resulting challenge is therefore no longer confined to containing violence in North Kivu and Ituri, but to preventing the emergence of a wider and more interconnected jihadist battlespace across northeastern Congo.
The assessment examines how ISCAP’s operational model is reshaping the geography of insecurity, emphasising why its expansion beyond North Kivu and Ituri is critical for regional stability and future counterinsurgency planning, and what the emerging trajectory suggests for regional stability and commercial risk.
Key Judgments
ISCAP is no longer operating exclusively within its traditional strongholds in North Kivu and Ituri, but is gradually expanding into new operational spaces, particularly Haute Uele Province.
The expansion reflects growing operational depth rather than temporary tactical activity, allowing the organisation to disperse military pressure while enlarging its geographic resilience.
ISCAP continues to prioritise mobility over territorial occupation, using repeated attacks, civilian intimidation and forest mobility to shape the security environment without governing territory.
The gradual enlargement of the battlespace increases pressure on Congolese and regional security forces by forcing them to distribute limited resources across multiple operational theatres.
If current trends continue, eastern Congo may evolve from a localised insurgency into a broader interconnected jihadist ecosystem capable of sustaining long-term instability across northeastern DRC.
ISCAP’s Operational Resilience
The organisational evolution from the Allied Democratic Forces to ISCAP highlights its strategic resilience, which is vital for understanding its current tactics and the threat it poses to regional stability and security efforts.
The ADF has historically functioned as a localised insurgent actor with hybrid motivations, including political grievances, criminal revenue generation, and religious radicalisation. Its pledge of allegiance to the Islamic State marked a transition toward integration within a transnational jihadist ecosystem. This integration did not imply direct command and control from the Islamic State core, but rather alignment within a franchise architecture characterised by branding, media amplification, and selective doctrinal diffusion.