Solid intelligence analysis. The distinction between operational persistence and strategic resurgence is crucial for policy, yet gets collapsed too often in threat assessments. The shift to Africa as the primary theater mirrors broader patterns of state fragility exploitation that we've seen with other non-state actors. The point about high-frequency but low-return violence captures what counterterrorism folks sometimes miss, that survivial doesn't require winning in the traditional sense.
Solid intelligence analysis. The distinction between operational persistence and strategic resurgence is crucial for policy, yet gets collapsed too often in threat assessments. The shift to Africa as the primary theater mirrors broader patterns of state fragility exploitation that we've seen with other non-state actors. The point about high-frequency but low-return violence captures what counterterrorism folks sometimes miss, that survivial doesn't require winning in the traditional sense.
Thank you for your kind words.
It is not easy to make clear and valid assessments of intelligence and counter-terrorism.
I am pleased that my analyses have been validated.
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