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Weekly Threat Shift
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Weekly Threat Shift | Issue #01
What Changed in Global Security This Week: Fragmentation, leadership targeting and the normalization of persistent insecurity.
May 18
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Daniele Garofalo
1
2
Countering AQAP Cognitive Warfare and Strategic Messaging
Disrupting Narrative Control and Mobilisation Pathways
Mar 21
•
Daniele Garofalo
1
1
Mitigating Jihadist Exploitation of Interstate Conflicts
Countering Jihadist Adaptation in a Period of Geopolitical War
Mar 9
•
Daniele Garofalo
1
1
Jihadist Exploitation of Interstate Conflict
War as Opportunity: How Jihadist Networks Could Exploit the US–Iran and Afghanistan–Pakistan Wars
Mar 9
•
Daniele Garofalo
2
3
Structured Defense and Clarification of the Analytical Thesis
Clarifying Scope, Strengthening Claims, and Addressing Critiques
Feb 24
•
Daniele Garofalo
Potential Weaknesses, Overextensions, and Analytical Risks
Critical Review from an Adversarial Analytical Perspective
Feb 24
•
Daniele Garofalo
1
Analytical Recalibration Following Red Cell Review
The Red Cell review has challenged core assumptions underpinning the original Cognitive Domain Assessment of al-Qaeda’s 2026 central leadership…
Feb 19
•
Daniele Garofalo
2
1
Stress testing al-Qaeda's strategic communication analysis
Core Analytical Assumption Under Attack
Feb 19
•
Daniele Garofalo
3
1
Exploitation of Decentralized UAV Capability by Tech-Enabled Jihadist Actors
A strategic stress-test of Western vulnerabilities
Jan 28
•
Daniele Garofalo
3
1
Al-Qaeda’s Cognitive Warfare in the Information Environment
Blind Spots, Risks, and Strategic Miscalculation
Jan 20
•
Daniele Garofalo
4
1
If AQAP Wins the Cognitive Fight in Southern Yemen
Implications, Risks and Blind Spots for Counter-Terrorism and Stabilisation Efforts
Jan 15
•
Daniele Garofalo
1
1
Annual Threat Assessment | Islamic State — (2025–2026)
Operational Trajectory, Geographic Centres of Gravity, and Strategic Outlook
Jan 3
•
Daniele Garofalo
7
1
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