Strategic Threat Outlooks

Strategic Threat Outlook | Islamic State in Africa — January 2026.

Continental Operational Trends, Risk Assessment, and Forecast

Feb 13 • Daniele Garofalo

Strategic Threat Outlook | Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin — January 2026

Operational Trends, Regional Risk, and Forecast

Feb 12 • Daniele Garofalo

Strategic Threat Outlook | Islamic State in Middle East and Asia — January 2026

Operational Trends, Regional Destabilization, and Forecast

Feb 11 • Daniele Garofalo

Strategic Threat Outlook | JNIM — January 2026

Operational Trends, Risk Assessment, and Forecast

Feb 10 • Daniele Garofalo

Strategic Threat Outlook | Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) — January 2026

Operational Trends, Security Risk, and Forecast

Feb 4 • Daniele Garofalo

Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin — Strategic Threat Outlook | December 2025

Operational Trends, Regional Risk, and Forecast

Jan 9 • Daniele Garofalo

JNIM — Strategic Threat Outlook | December 2025

Operational Trends, Risk Assessment, and Forecast

Jan 7 • Daniele Garofalo

Islamic State in Middle East and Asia — Strategic Threat Outlook | December 2025

Operational Trends, Regional Destabilization, and Forecast

Jan 6 • Daniele Garofalo

Islamic State in Africa — Strategic Threat Outlook | December 2025

Continental Operational Trends, Risk Assessment, and Forecast

Jan 5 • Daniele Garofalo

A year of TTP terrorist attacks

Operational escalation, territorial entrenchment, and the persistence of a national jihadist insurgency in Pakistan (2025)

Jan 4 • Daniele Garofalo

A year of Islamic State terrorist attacks: resilience without resurgence

High-frequency violence, low strategic return, and the consolidation of Africa as the movement’s core theater.

Jan 4 • Daniele Garofalo

Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) — Strategic Threat Outlook | December 2025

Operational Trends, Security Risk, and Forecast

Jan 2 • Daniele Garofalo

#nojs-banner { position: fixed; bottom: 0; left: 0; padding: 16px 16px 16px 32px; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background: red; color: white; font-family: -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 13px; line-height: 13px; } #nojs-banner a { color: inherit; text-decoration: underline; } This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please turn on JavaScript or unblock scripts